275,000 Supported Tracking Supply While Sensing Demand [Institutional Commentary]

Price Trend: Last week, both domestic and international tin prices gave back more than half of the short-term gains driven by Alphamin's suspension of production at the Bisie tin mine. The SHFE tin index found technical support around 275,000 yuan/mt, with total open interest fluctuating and decreasing, but not returning to the lower levels seen before the price surge. The market is sensitive to supply uncertainties and is likely to shift more focus towards demand. Upstream Supply: The resumption of production in Wa State is still in the planning stage, and Alphamin's one-month shutdown will affect 1,500 mt of tin supply. Last week, M23 captured the mining hub of Walikale in North Kivu Province; on the 22nd, the group announced a unilateral ceasefire and redeployment of troops in Walikale, aiming to create conditions for a peaceful resolution, but the uncertainty of local tin mines returning to normal operations remains high. Domestic tin concentrate imports are even tighter, with 18,500 mt (7,138 mt metal content) imported in the first two months, down 12.5% YoY; Myanmar's monthly imports were only 1,300 mt metal content. The top three African countries remain the primary source. In terms of refined tin, LME outperforms SHFE, with net exports turning to 301 mt in the first two months. Under the backdrop of tight raw material supply, it is expected that the operating rate of primary tin smelters will pull back, with a high risk of raw material imbalance. For secondary tin, the recovery of scrap tin recycling is constrained by terminal orders, making it difficult for operations to rebound. Continue to monitor changes in production schedules. Downstream Consumption: Both domestic and international tin markets saw an inflow of visible inventory, with LME tin inventory increasing by 160 mt to 3,760 mt last week, and LME 0-3 month spot discounts at $75/mt. SMM social inventory of tin in China increased by 398 mt to 10,548 mt, with downstream acceptance of high tin prices limited. Entering April, the market will continue to focus on the uncertain risks of US reciprocal tariffs. Global semiconductor sales reached $56.5 billion in January, up 17.9% YoY and down 1.7% MoM. Global semiconductor sales hit a record high of $57.8 billion in November last year, followed by two consecutive months of decline, but still remain at a relatively high level. Outlook: Short-term attention to the tin market is more easily influenced by supply-side stimuli, and the current atmosphere is still dominated by supply. It is expected that 275,000 yuan/mt will provide support for SHFE tin, with mid-to-downstream buyers taking advantage of price dips as needed. Tin prices are expected to mainly oscillate between 275,000-285,000 yuan/mt this week.